Setting out from my Athens hostel yesterday under threat of yet another thunderstorm – this was the third in the three days – I asked the cleaner if this was normal for Greece at this time of year. “No”, she said. “Nothing is normal in Greece at the moment.”

It is impossible to forecast events beyond hours, let alone days.

Wednesday was a perfect example of that. While the Eurogroup and Greek government met, rumours flew around that a deal would be reached if prime minister Alexis Tsipras either cancelled Sunday’s referendum or campaigned for a yes vote (yes to accept the demands of the Eurogroup for more austerity). Some in his own ministry publicly and privately urged him to do it.

The Communist Party (KKE) leadership – which has taken the ultra-sectarian position of calling for abstention on Sunday –- along with others, was quick to issue a denunciation.

Most waited, though this did not mean idleness. Street poles were being covered in posters. I recognised the official Syriza posters, but there were many, many more. Preparations for neighbourhood meetings, and leafleting of the cafes and streets continued apace. The activists could not afford to lose an hour, but everyone hung on for Tsipras’s speech clarifying what was going on.

When it came, comrades from the Red Network in Syriza, one of the two factions that make up the Left Platform, were palpably relieved: there was no deal. The referendum will go ahead and because the Eurogroup’s position has hardened there will be no talks before Sunday. The status quo, if there is such a thing this week, prevails.

The Eurogroup has determined its way forward, but there is division – a sign of the depth of the crisis. French president Francois Hollande reportedly urged an immediate agreement so as not to risk an OXI (“no”) win. German chancellor Angela Merkel and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said there would be no talks until after the referendum.

In a game during which both sides have gambled the house, the most powerful player at the table, Merkel, has put all the chips on getting a yes vote on Sunday and bringing down the Syriza government.

In recent history, the European ruling classes have not had to deal with a popular left reformist government that includes significant sections of the far left. They thought they could bring Tsipras to heel in the usual ways and that in office, he would see how things are done.

He gave them every reason to think that would work. But in the end, they did not give him something that either the left of the party would back or that the right of the party could sell to the bruised population. Now he must go so that order as they know it can be restored.

There are enormous forces arrayed against the government and the working class that stands behind it. The parties of austerity – New Democracy, PASOK and To Potami – the organisations responsible for the yes rally on Tuesday night, are the local representatives of the European bourgeoisie’s campaign.

Alone, they would not be sufficient to secure the yes victory in the poll. PASOK is spent, decimated in terms of members, voting base and control of unions, because it implemented the first memorandum. To Potami is a creation of the media and was anti-austerity on a populist basis before the election but pro-agreement at any cost since. New Democracy, the traditional party of big business, is still powerful, but it is not a mass organisation. That limits its ability to mobilise.

However, they are aided by every media outlet campaigning for a yes. Employers in the private sector are trying to wreak havoc by standing people down without pay, telling them they can’t do business while the banks are shut and to blame the government for that. One even tweeted on Tuesday that he would be distributing workers’ wages that night in Syntagma square only to those who showed up.

Both the local and European bourgeoisie campaigning for a yes have made this about Grexit – Greece leaving the euro currency. In that context, Tsipras and Varoufakis’s argument that Greece can stop the austerity but stay in the euro area is a delusion.

They have taken this framework into the negotiations since January. However, as the Guardian has reported, the IMF’s modelling shows that, even on the most optimistic projections, Greece will be mired in debt for another decade at least. Greek economic growth is not the objective of Europe’s rulers. Crushing working class living standards and opposition to neoliberalism is the goal.

Tsipras and Varoufakis want a no vote in the referendum and a deal on Monday or Tuesday. The contradiction is that while Varoufakis says, “Vote no to help us reach an agreement and stay in the euro”, most people are voting no to austerity – which will continue under any agreement signed with the Eurogroup.

We will only know how this contradiction plays out if the no campaign wins.

The main question in people’s mind now is what will happen if Greece exits the euro area. People in the street are not blind to the fact that this is a looming possibility as early as Monday. But the government’s refusal to talk about it blindsides the people who want that question answered.

One of the key divisions in Syriza, between the Left Platform and the party majority that backs Tsipras, is that the left has an answer to that question. “If we are forced out”, they say, “we will have a chance to implement the Syriza program – liveable social security, affordable public transport, housing for the homeless, collective bargaining, raising the minimum wage, a moratorium on people having their utilities cut off because they cannot afford to pay their bill and much more”.

In the context of an exit, when bank stability will be crucial, the demand to nationalise the banks would be posed concretely. Similarly, the demand to nationalise pharmaceutical companies to ensure people can still get medicine would take on a tangible dimension.

Nationalisation is not the same as workers control and for now these are political questions posed by the impasse rather than by workers’ own activity.

For now, there is an extraordinary amount of work to do. Thousands of people have put everything in their lives aside to do it. Bands of activists are leafleting the streets constantly now. The last I encountered was a group of four German comrades who, like me, only knew one word of Greek and on the strength of that booked their flights to join the struggle.

As I write in a cafe, there are groups of middle-aged men drinking coffee and interrupting each other in earnest argument. They have been at it for hours. I catch a few words, “fascists”, “anti-fascists”, “Tsipras” and “democracy”. They are not musing about the weather. The college opposite is covered with banners. Activists tell me the politicisation now is wider and more intense than at any time in the last five years.

A comrade pointed out last night that the Greek people have been told many times that the country will be plunged into mayhem if they don’t accept the austerity. The first and second time they were prepared to hunker down and accept it. However, this is a repeat of that show and they feel they’ve already seen that episode numerous times. Time now for something new.