The resolution of a secessionist conflict in southern Philippine island of Mindanao is unlikely to create any lasting peace. Instead it will be part of an increased US military presence.

The southern provinces of Mindanao, mostly inhabited by Muslim Bangsamoro (the Moro people), enjoyed a culture separate from the rest of the Philippines before colonisation. They have endured considerable discrimination in the independent Philippine state. Mindanao has disproportionately high levels of poverty compared to the rest of the country.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front and other groups have been campaigning for an independent Bangsamoro state for decades. The MILF has now agreed to decommission its arms in return for the establishment of an autonomous Bangsamoro government.

The Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (CAB), signed between the Philippine government and the MILF on 27 March, is beset with problems.

The MILF is the only party to the agreement. This leave s a number of excluded groups that will continue various forms of armed struggle. There also is likely to be considerable opposition from the majority Christian settler population.

The most significant omission is any consideration of the rights of the indigenous Lumad population. These tribal groups have separate claims to ancestral domains to both the Muslim and settler population.

Many peace activists see the agreement as more about integrating the MILF into the political mainstream. Like the rest of the Philippines, Mindanao is governed by elite local clans. President Benigno Aquino III appears to be using the agreement as way of shoring up political and electoral support in Mindanao. In return, the MILF and local Bangsamoro elites have agreed to open up the region to more intensive resource exploitation.

The CAB is linked to the Aquino government’s neoliberal approach to development. It aims to foster a friendlier environment for investment in natural gas and other resource projects.

The exclusion of Lumad interests may result in more intensified conflicts over land use because resource projects are often located in Lumad ancestral domains.

Meanwhile, while the CAB entails a reduction in the presence of the armed forces of the Philippines, the overall effect is likely to be an increased presence of foreign military forces.

The new bilateral pact – the “Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement” – will return the right of the United States military to establish bases. The agreement allows the US armed forces to station troops and munitions in the Philippines.

The Philippine ruling class has traditionally relied on the US economically and militarily since independence in 1946. This included major US bases until the expiration of a previous agreement in 1992.

The subsequent Visiting Forces Agreement of 1998 allowed for increased visits and joint training with the Philippine military. US support had been important to Manila in waging war against the Bangsamoro populations across the 2000s.

The CAB and the latest agreement appear linked. The enhanced Cooperation Agreement is part of the US military “pivot” (now called “rebalancing”) to Asia. The rebalancing is designed to advance US economic and geopolitical interests in the region and to encircle and contain its potential economic rivals, especially China.

The Obama administration is hoping the Bangsamoro conflict can at least be contained because it wishes to focus on geo-strategic priorities and avoid further involvement in a complex local conflict. The Philippine ruling class has a direct interest in an increased US military presence to deter China from any escalation of its territorial disputes with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The mass of workers and peasants in the Philippines therefore have little stake in either agreement. They are more focused on promoting the interest of sections of the Philippine ruling class and the US.