Since the 2006 military coup that deposed elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand has seemed to lurch from one moment of crisis to the next. In recent weeks, the situation has escalated dramatically, with anti-democratic protests blocking the city, and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra announcing a 60-day state of emergency, to last beyond the upcoming election.

Pre-polling for the upcoming election commenced 25 January and was met with violent scenes across Bangkok when anti-democratic forces mobilised to shut down polling booths. In response, the Electoral Commission called on the Government to postpone the election - precisely what the reactionary protest movement is demanding. The Commission itself is compromised, with at least one Commissioner publicly backing the protests. The PM is scheduled to meet the Commission 28 January to discuss the election date. Any delay is a defeat.

Contrary to the standard analysis, the ongoing crisis has very little to do with the alleged “lust for power” of the Shinawatra family, the various intrigues of the monarchy or an irreconcilable rift between Bangkok residents and the rest of the country.

At its heart, the conflict is between an oppressed and exploited population, both rural and urban, and an entrenched elite determined to wreck the country’s already minimal democracy.

The mainstream media continue to characterise the current protests as some kind of “people’s revolution”. In fact, the protests are profoundly reactionary.

Sick of seeing its favoured Democrat Party losing elections, the movement has made its central demand that the parliament be replaced by an unelected “people’s council”. Ex-Democrat Party MP Suthep Thaugsuban orchestrates the movement, while the mass of participants are the same middle class gangs who once made up the proto-fascist yellow shirt movement.

Suthep’s chosen figurehead is Chitpas Bhirombhakdi, a prominent high society fashionista, instagram sensation and heir to the multi-billion dollar Singha beer empire. She explained her dedication to the struggle against democracy: “Thais lack a true understanding of democracy … one man one vote doesn’t work.”

Bhirombhakdi is typical of these elite figures who not only lend verbal and financial support to the movement but place themselves right at its heart. Also spotted among the protests was Petch Osathanugrah, worth $630 million, and a majority shareholder in cosmetics giant Shiseido. He told reporters: “I’m not really for democracy… I don't think we’re ready for it. We need a strong government like China’s or Singapore’s – almost like a dictatorship, but for the good of the country.”

In December, the government made a significant and unnecessary concession in calling a snap election for 2 February. When the protests escalated, the government reacted by declaring a state of emergency.

Socialists in Thailand are calling for the election to proceed unhindered, but they have no illusions in the Pheu Thai Party and they are staunchly opposed to the state of emergency. Socialist Patchanee Kumnak explained to Red Flag:

“We definitely disagree with it, as it never solves any problem. We learned in 2010 [through the deadly crackdown on “red shirts” opposing the previous, military-imposed, government] that there were victims from imposing this law. Those victims are still in prisons, and we can’t rely on the justice system to stand for human rights. So, the government should learn this lesson and find new ways to fight the royalist mob.”

The 2011 election victory of Yingluck Shinawatra and Pheu Thai was the culmination of the mass pro-democracy red shirt movement. Her party’s popularity rests on the fact that, prior to the 2006 coup, its policies brought genuine improvements to the lives of farmers and the urban working poor.

The party’s famous 30 baht (A$1.05) health care scheme allowed many Thais to visit a doctor for the first time in generations. It is policies like this that many commentators, both inside and outside Thailand, describe as “populist vote buying”.

The Shinawatras’ respective terms in office needn’t be whitewashed. Yingluck has betrayed the red shirt activists who put her in power, leaving many to rot in jail on trumped up lese-majesty convictions.

But in the absence of a genuine party for workers and the poor, the Shinawatra party has the support of millions of the most downtrodden people in the country and a clear majority of the working class. The election must go ahead, and the mass of pro-democracy red shirts should be mobilised to defend voters and polling booths from right wing attacks.