Is Andrew Bolt stupid? Or is he just a liar? Based on his latest frothy-mouthed rant on climate change, published in Melbourne’s Herald Sun in late October, it has to be one or the other. Perhaps it’s both.

According to Bolt, “it’s hard to worry about man-made global warming when Victoria has just suffered an unusually cold October”. The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) should apologise, he says, for daring to suggest, in their most recent State of the Climate report, that “observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability”.

Temperatures across Victoria were marginally below the long term average for October (maximums were down 0.63 degrees Celsius, minimums down 0.27 degrees). Scientists have never suggested, however, that global warming means hotter temperatures everywhere all the time. 

Victoria’s somewhat chilly October is part of the “underlying natural variability” mentioned by the CSIRO and the BoM. To get an accurate picture of what’s going on with the climate, we can’t stop at the weather conditions experienced in one small corner of the world, in one month. We need a global, long term perspective.

Fortunately we have one, so we don’t have to have to rely, for our understanding of climate change, on how cold Andrew Bolt felt when he got out of bed this morning.

The latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is unequivocal. In 2016 to date, global temperatures have been almost 1 degree Celsius above the long term average. This year is on track to set a new record. The two previous record highs were set in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

One degree of warming might not sound like much. But for the earth’s natural support systems, it’s like running a fever. Ecosystems are being pushed to breaking point. Around the world, millions of people are threatened by the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, floods and cyclones, along with rising seas.

This is just the start. As reported in the World Meteorological Organisation’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, 2015 marked the first time carbon dioxide levels averaged above 400 parts per million (ppm) across the year. This compares with 278 ppm in the pre-industrial era. Even if drastic action is taken to curb emissions, carbon dioxide levels will remain above the 400 ppm mark for generations to come, and temperatures will continue to rise.

It’s not too late, however, to avoid a future of dangerous, runaway warming. The science is there – based on existing technology, a transition to a 100 percent renewable global energy system is possible in the space of a couple of decades. The money is also there – the annual cost of such a transition, on some estimates, is significantly less than what governments lose to tax evasion. 

What’s lacking is any willingness, on the part of big business or politicians, to change. The emissions reduction targets set by world governments in association with the UN climate summit in Paris last December are vastly inadequate. And as negotiations around the “Paris agreement” continue this week in Morocco, even those targets are looking out of reach.

Australia is among the worst offenders. It’s likely the Turnbull government will ratify the agreement. Nevertheless, while it has brought its best “green face” to the UN negotiations, at home it’s business as usual. And for Australia, business as usual means continuing as a global leader in the world’s most carbon-intensive industries.

As Richard Denniss aptly put it in a recent in-depth report for the Monthly, “Australia isn’t ‘tackling’ climate change, we are selling it”.Is Andrew Bolt stupid? Or is he just a liar? Based on his latest frothy-mouthed rant on climate change, published in Melbourne’s Herald Sun in late October, it has to be one or the other. Perhaps it’s both.

According to Bolt, “it’s hard to worry about man-made global warming when Victoria has just suffered an unusually cold October”. The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) should apologise, he says, for daring to suggest, in their most recent State of the Climate report, that “observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability”.

Temperatures across Victoria were marginally below the long term average for October (maximums were down 0.63 degrees Celsius, minimums down 0.27 degrees). Scientists have never suggested, however, that global warming means hotter temperatures everywhere all the time. 

Victoria’s somewhat chilly October is part of the “underlying natural variability” mentioned by the CSIRO and the BoM. To get an accurate picture of what’s going on with the climate, we can’t stop at the weather conditions experienced in one small corner of the world, in one month. We need a global, long term perspective.

Fortunately we have one, so we don’t have to have to rely, for our understanding of climate change, on how cold Andrew Bolt felt when he got out of bed this morning.

The latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is unequivocal. In 2016 to date, global temperatures have been almost 1 degree Celsius above the long term average. This year is on track to set a new record. The two previous record highs were set in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

One degree of warming might not sound like much. But for the earth’s natural support systems, it’s like running a fever. Ecosystems are being pushed to breaking point. Around the world, millions of people are threatened by the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, floods and cyclones, along with rising seas.

This is just the start. As reported in the World Meteorological Organisation’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, 2015 marked the first time carbon dioxide levels averaged above 400 parts per million (ppm) across the year. This compares with 278 ppm in the pre-industrial era. Even if drastic action is taken to curb emissions, carbon dioxide levels will remain above the 400 ppm mark for generations to come, and temperatures will continue to rise.

It’s not too late, however, to avoid a future of dangerous, runaway warming. The science is there – based on existing technology, a transition to a 100 percent renewable global energy system is possible in the space of a couple of decades. The money is also there – the annual cost of such a transition, on some estimates, is significantly less than what governments lose to tax evasion. 

What’s lacking is any willingness, on the part of big business or politicians, to change. The emissions reduction targets set by world governments in association with the UN climate summit in Paris last December are vastly inadequate. And as negotiations around the “Paris agreement” continue this week in Morocco, even those targets are looking out of reach.

Australia is among the worst offenders. It’s likely the Turnbull government will ratify the agreement. Nevertheless, while it has brought its best “green face” to the UN negotiations, at home it’s business as usual. And for Australia, business as usual means continuing as a global leader in the world’s most carbon-intensive industries.

As Richard Denniss aptly put it in a recent in-depth report for the Monthly, “Australia isn’t ‘tackling’ climate change, we are selling it”. t